The promise to deport one million undocumented immigrants in the first months of Donald Trump’s administration has generated significant concern and speculation about the government’s real capacity to meet this ambitious goal. Despite political and media pressure, the numbers suggest that achieving this objective could be very difficult due to various operational and logistical limitations. Below, we analyze the complications that immigration authorities will face and what immigrants should consider in light of this scenario.
Is it possible to deport one million people in a few months?
In the current context, the numbers do not seem to support Trump’s promise. According to the most recent data, ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) has around 48,000 people in its custody, and its daily deportation capacity is limited. Currently, the agency has an estimated 14 aircraft available to carry out deportations. If these planes operate at full capacity, they could deport approximately 1,890 people per day. To reach the one million deportation mark in the first few months of its term, the Trump administration would need to expel about 10,000 people daily, a goal that far exceeds current capacity.
The gap between promise and reality
In fiscal year 2024, ICE deported approximately 271,000 people, which is far from the one million deportation goal. While the Trump administration could attempt to increase the aircraft fleet and hire more staff, these changes will not happen immediately. Additional resources take time to be approved, funded, and managed within the government system, limiting the speed at which these adjustments can be implemented.
Interesting facts:
- In 2024, 271,000 people were deported, a figure far from the expectations of the new administration.
- Each ICE plane can carry up to 135 people, so even using the entire available fleet, the number of daily deportations would not come close to the 10,000 needed.
Logistical obstacles in the deportation process
Deportations are not a simple process. In addition to the lack of planes and personnel, there are further complications related to legal procedures. Each expulsion must be reviewed to ensure that human rights are respected and that immigrants have access to due process. This procedure involves a considerable administrative burden and international coordination, as many immigrants must be handed over to authorities in their countries of origin. Furthermore, the time needed to organize international flights and comply with security standards further complicates the process.
As it becomes evident that reaching the goal of one million deportations may not be feasible with current resources, the Trump administration may explore alternative strategies. Options include working with other countries to expedite repatriation processes and increase cooperation regarding deportations. Additionally, using other modes of transportation, such as buses, to bring immigrants to the border and then deporting them via commercial flights could be a viable strategy.
However, implementing these changes not only requires a significant reorganization of resources but also a considerable economic investment. It is estimated that the cost of increasing the air fleet and hiring additional personnel could amount to tens of billions of dollars.
If you find yourself facing a deportation situation or have questions about your immigration status, do not face this process alone. Our team of immigration attorneys is here to help you defend your rights and explore all available legal options. Request a consultation by clicking here or call us at (509) 927-3840. To learn more about this topic, we invite you to watch the video in which immigration lawyer Héctor Quiroga explains more.
